The videos in Part III provide an introduction to both classical statistical methods and to random processes (Poisson processes and Markov chains).
The textbook for this subject is Bertsekas, Dimitri, and John Tsitsiklis. Introduction to Probability. 2nd ed. Athena Scientific, 2008. ISBN: 9781886529236.
The authors have made this Selected Summary Material (PDF) available for OCW users.
L = Lecture Content
S = Supplemental Content
SES # & TOPICS | SLIDES |
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Lecture 21: The Bernoulli Process | |
› View Lecture Videos L21.1 Lecture OverviewFlash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Lecture Overview > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 5MB) L21.2 The Bernoulli ProcessFlash and JavaScript are required for this feature. The Bernoulli Process > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 5MB) L21.3 Stochastic ProcessesFlash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Stochastic Processes > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 8MB) L21.4 Review of Known Properties of the Bernoulli ProcessFlash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Review of Known Properties of the Bernoulli Process > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 3MB) L21.5 The Fresh Start PropertyFlash and JavaScript are required for this feature. The Fresh Start Property > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 18MB) L21.6 Example: The Distribution of a Busy PeriodFlash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Example: The Distribution of a Busy Period > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 5MB) L21.7 The Time of the K-th ArrivalFlash and JavaScript are required for this feature. The Time of the K-th Arrival > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 9MB) L21.8 Merging of Bernoulli ProcessesFlash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Merging of Bernoulli Processes > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 11MB) L21.9 Splitting a Bernoulli ProcessFlash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Splitting a Bernoulli Process > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 7MB) L21.10 The Poisson Approximation to the BinomialFlash and JavaScript are required for this feature. The Poisson Approximation to the Binomial > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 8MB) |
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Lecture 22: The Poisson Process Part I | |
› View Lecture Videos L22.1 Lecture OverviewFlash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Lecture Overview > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 4MB) L22.2 Definition of the Poisson ProcessFlash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Definition of the Poisson Process > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 7MB) L22.3 Applications of the Poisson ProcessFlash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Applications of the Poisson Process > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 4MB) L22.4 The Poisson PMF for the Number of ArrivalsFlash and JavaScript are required for this feature. The Poisson PMF for the Number of Arrivals > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 11MB) L22.5 The Mean and Variance of the Number of ArrivalsFlash and JavaScript are required for this feature. The Mean and Variance of the Number of Arrivals > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 6MB) L22.6 A Simple ExampleFlash and JavaScript are required for this feature. A Simple Example > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 5MB) L22.7 Time of the K–th ArrivalFlash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Time of the K–th Arrival > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 14MB) L22.8 The Fresh Start Property and Its ImplicationsFlash and JavaScript are required for this feature. The Fresh Start Property and Its Implications > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 13MB) L22.9 Summary of ResultsFlash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Summary of Results > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 3MB) L22.10 An ExampleFlash and JavaScript are required for this feature. An Example > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 21MB) |
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Lecture 23: The Poisson Process Part II | |
› View Lecture Videos L23.1 Lecture OverviewFlash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Lecture Overview > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 4MB) L23.2 The Sum of Independent Poisson Random VariablesFlash and JavaScript are required for this feature. The Sum of Independent Poisson Random Variables > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 7MB) L23.3 Merging Independent Poisson ProcessesFlash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Merging Independent Poisson Processes > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 10MB) L23.4 Where is an Arrival of the Merged Process Coming From?Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Where is an Arrival of the Merged Process Coming From? > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 6MB) L23.5 The Time Until the First (or Last) Lightbulb Burns OutFlash and JavaScript are required for this feature. The Time Until the First (or Last) Lightbulb Burns Out > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 16MB) L23.6 Splitting a Poisson ProcessFlash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Splitting a Poisson Process > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 6MB) L23.7 Random Incidence in the Poisson ProcessFlash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Random Incidence in the Poisson Process > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 16MB) L23.8 Random Incidence in a Non–Poisson ProcessFlash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Random Incidence in a Non–Poisson Process > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 7MB) L23.9 Different Sampling Methods Can Give Different ResultsFlash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Different Sampling Methods Can Give Different Results > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 6MB) S23.1 Poisson Versus Normal Approximations to the BinomialFlash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Poisson Versus Normal Approximations to the Binomial > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 11MB) S23.2 Poisson Arrivals During an Exponential IntervalFlash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Poisson Arrivals During an Exponential Interval > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 13MB) |
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Lecture 24: Finite-State Markov Chains | |
› View Lecture Videos L24.1 Lecture OverviewFlash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Lecture Overview > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 5MB) L24.2 Introduction to Markov ProcessesFlash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Introduction to Markov Processes > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 2MB) L24.3 Checkout Counter ExampleFlash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Checkout Counter Example > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 16MB) L24.4 Discrete-Time Finite-State Markov ChainsFlash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Discrete-Time Finite-State Markov Chains > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 10MB) L24.5 N–Step Transition ProbabilitiesFlash and JavaScript are required for this feature. N–Step Transition Probabilities > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 15MB) L24.6 A Numerical Example — Part IFlash and JavaScript are required for this feature. A Numerical Example — Part I > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 14MB) L24.7 Generic Convergence QuestionsFlash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Generic Convergence Questions > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 8MB) L24.8 Recurrent and Transient StatesFlash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Recurrent and Transient States > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 7MB) |
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Lecture 25: Steady–State Behavior of Markov Chains | |
› View Lecture Videos L25.1 Brief IntroductionFlash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Brief Introduction > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 4MB) L25.2 Lecture OverviewFlash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Lecture Overview > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 2MB) L25.3 Markov Chain ReviewFlash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Markov Chain Review > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 12MB) L25.4 The Probability of a PathFlash and JavaScript are required for this feature. The Probability of a Path > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 13MB) L25.5 Recurrent and Transient States: ReviewFlash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Recurrent and Transient States: Review > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 6MB) L25.6 Periodic StatesFlash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Periodic States > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 10MB) L25.7 Steady-State Probabilities and ConvergenceFlash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Steady-State Probabilities and Convergence > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 19MB) L25.8 A Numerical Example — Part IIFlash and JavaScript are required for this feature. A Numerical Example — Part II > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 7MB) L25.9 Visit Frequency Interpretation of Steady-State ProbabilitiesFlash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Visit Frequency Interpretation of Steady-State Probabilities > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 9MB) L25.10 Birth-Death Processes — Part IFlash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Birth-Death Processes — Part I > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 15MB) L25.11 Birth-Death Processes — Part IIFlash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Birth-Death Processes — Part II > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 12MB) |
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Lecture 26: Absorption Probabilities and Expected Time to Absorption | |
› View Lecture Videos L26.1 Brief IntroductionFlash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Brief Introduction > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 4MB) L26.2 Lecture OverviewFlash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Lecture Overview > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 1MB) L26.3 Review of Steady-State BehaviorFlash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Review of Steady-State Behavior > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 18MB) L26.4 A Numerical Example — Part IIIFlash and JavaScript are required for this feature. A Numerical Example — Part III > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 17MB) L26.5 Design of a Phone SystemFlash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Design of a Phone System > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 26MB) L26.6 Absorption ProbabilitiesFlash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Absorption Probabilities > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 17MB) L26.7 Expected Time to AbsorptionFlash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Expected Time to Absorption > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 17MB) L26.8 Mean First Passage TimeFlash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Mean First Passage Time > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 12MB) L26.9 Gambler's RuinFlash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Gambler's Ruin > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 17MB) |